Labour has promised to bring down Britain’s rising welfare costs, but experts are warning that the popular state pension triple lock could soon be at risk. As Labour works to get a handle on the ballooning welfare bill, pressure is growing on the party to rethink some of its promises — and it’s causing a lot of unease, especially among pensioners.
The government, under Labour’s leadership, has said it will keep the triple lock guarantee in place until the next general election in 2029. This rule makes sure that the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest: inflation, average wages, or a minimum of 2.5%. It has long been seen as politically untouchable, a promise that no party would dare to break because of how important it is to older voters.
But behind the scenes, cracks are showing. Welfare spending is surging fast, with predictions that the number of people claiming incapacity benefits will reach 4.1 million by the end of the decade. At the same time, experts are questioning how long the government can afford to keep such an expensive promise like the triple lock. Even some voices within the Conservative Party have said it might be time to rethink it, with *The Spectator* magazine warning last December that sooner or later, a government would need to be “brave enough” to scrap it.
Labour’s own Pensions Minister, Torsten Bell, once called the triple lock a “silly system” before he entered government. That history has led some to question just how committed Labour really is to protecting it for the long term, despite Sir Keir Starmer’s public insistence that it will stay.
The situation is tricky for Labour. According to YouGov polls, many voters see Labour as the party that is most sympathetic to benefit claimants. Around 41% of people think Labour is close to welfare recipients, compared to just 13% who say the same about the Conservatives. This perception makes it politically risky for Labour to be seen cutting back too much on benefits, even as the economic pressures mount.
And yet, Labour has already made big moves since taking office. New welfare reforms led by DWP Minister Liz Kendall are targeting the sharp rise in disability benefit claims. Since the pandemic, an extra one million working-age adults in England and Wales alone have started receiving disability benefits. Mental health issues are now the leading reason for claims, making up about 44% of cases, compared to just 25% twenty years ago. The Institute for Fiscal Studies pointed out that mental health problems alone account for more than half of the recent increase in claimants.
Labour has announced cuts to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) worth about £5 billion. Still, even with these cuts, total welfare spending is expected to rise by £13 billion, reaching nearly £50 billion since 2019. Critics have already started pushing back hard. Many Labour MPs, activists, and union leaders have slammed the cuts as a betrayal of Labour’s traditional values of supporting the vulnerable.
One political analyst summed up the mood by saying, “Labour is taking the political pain of cutting welfare without actually reducing the overall bill.” In other words, they are facing backlash without achieving much in savings.
Meanwhile, Labour is preparing to release its long-promised child poverty strategy, hoping to soften some of the anger from within its own ranks. But it’s clear that Sir Keir Starmer and his team are walking a political tightrope: trying to control public spending while not alienating the voters who helped bring them to power.
With the cost-of-living crisis still weighing heavily on millions of Britons, and Labour’s early popularity now facing its first real tests, the debate over pensions, welfare, and public spending is only going to get louder in the months ahead. Whether the triple lock can really survive the tough choices facing the government remains to be seen — but it’s no longer the guaranteed promise it once seemed.
