A new study shows that middle-aged voters are leaving the Labour Party because they are worried about paying their bills and falling into debt. This comes as Ofgem, the energy regulator, is about to announce higher gas and electricity prices for households.
The report, by the Nuffield Political Research Centre at Oxford University, found that voters who struggle to make ends meet are most likely to switch their support to other parties. This explains why 40% of voters who supported Labour in the last election are now thinking of changing their vote.
Voters aged 35 to 59, who should feel stable in their lives, are the most concerned about their finances. The study, funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, noted that older voters usually have less money but also fewer debts, while younger voters often rely on family for support.
Professor Jane Green said: “Support for the major political parties in Britain has never seemed so shaky. Voters who are struggling financially are looking for other options because they don’t see things improving for themselves or their children.”
Ofgem is expected to announce a new energy price cap today, which could raise average household bills by £85. Since Labour came to power, the price cap has already increased by £170.
By October 2024, Labour had lost 40% of its previous voters to other parties or undecided voters, and its support continues to drop in polls. Researchers found that people feel financially insecure due to rising living costs, job worries, low savings, low disposable income, and mortgage or other debts. These factors make them uncertain about their economic future.
Professor Green added: “People’s financial struggles, especially in middle age, are happening at a time when political loyalties are also unstable. With middle-aged voters unsure about which party to support and feeling financially insecure, parties need to focus on helping people feel more confident about their economic future before the next election.”
She also said: “Voters who are financially insecure are looking for new political options because they don’t see things getting better for themselves or their children. Discussions about culture wars and immigration don’t address their main concerns. A party that focuses on economic security—helping people reduce costs and rebuild their savings—will have a better chance of winning their support. Without this, we’ll likely see more political instability and divided votes.”
Geoffrey Evans, Professor of Political Sociology at Oxford University, said: “In our slow-growing and uncertain economy, middle-aged people are feeling the most pressure. Any party that can ease their financial worries has a good chance of winning their support, as they are more politically open than younger or older voters.”
He added: “The Chancellor should keep these voters in mind when planning the next budget. Economic insecurity could hurt Labour’s chances more than immigration, as it directly affects people’s daily lives.”
