Andrew Marr Predicts a Political Crash That Could Shake Kier Starmer’s Government

Andrew Marr writes about a big change happening inside the Labour Party. He calls it a “counter-revolution” or even a “Reformation.” This shift is part of a larger global trend, starting in the U.S., where conservative ideas are shaping policies on climate change, migration, and gender issues. But in the UK, things are different because, for the first time, Labour is in power during this shift. This puts Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his team in a tough spot as they face hard choices.

Marr points to several examples of Labour’s new direction. One is the decision about the Rosebank oil field in the North Sea. Another is the government’s tough stance on migration, including videos showing migrants being shackled and deported. There’s also the debate over gender issues in universities. All these decisions together show Labour making a sharp turn in its policies, focusing more on the concerns of working-class and middle-class voters who feel left behind by politics in big cities.

But how big is this change? During the election, Starmer already talked about taking a harder line on immigration. Now, the government has gone further, saying anyone who comes to the UK illegally will never get British citizenship. This has caused some Labour MPs, like Stella Creasy, to push back, joking that even Paddington Bear wouldn’t get a passport under these rules. This new approach is causing tension within the party, as some feel Labour is moving away from its traditional values.

The shift is also causing problems in the cabinet. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, once seen as a rising star, is now under pressure over a new schools bill that critics say limits the freedom of academy schools. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy is also facing challenges as the government’s new direction upsets more progressive members of the party.

Marr warns that this could lead to ministers quitting, especially those who feel Labour is abandoning its core beliefs. Ed Miliband, a close ally of Starmer and the architect of Labour’s green industrial strategy, has already had to accept compromises, like possibly reversing decisions on environmental policies. The big question is whether this shift is a smart move to win over voters or a step too far toward policies that many in the UK don’t support.

At the heart of this change is an idea called “Blue Labour,” which focuses on community, faith, and family. It’s about listening to working-class voters who feel ignored by politicians in London. While it shares some similarities with the Conservative Party’s “leveling up” plan, it’s different because it supports more government involvement in the economy and takes a more conservative view on social issues like gender and immigration.

As Labour tries to navigate this new path, Marr predicts a political crash, especially when spending cuts are announced in the spring. With tensions growing inside the party and the threat of new political movements like Reform UK, Labour’s ability to stay united and focused will be tested. The challenge for Starmer is to win back voters who feel left out without losing the support of Labour’s traditional base. For now, Labour is walking a fine line, trying to balance practicality with its core values in a fast-changing political world.