In a scathing critique, geopolitical analyst Dr. Azeem Ibrahim argues that Britain is rapidly losing its global influence due to economic stagnation and outdated policies.
By 2030, countries like Poland are projected to surpass the UK in GDP per capita and military strength.
British military leaders have even admitted that in a conflict with Russia, the UK would run out of critical ammunition within ten days. According to Ibrahim, this decline is not due to diplomatic failures but rather to a lack of economic growth and strategic foresight.
While Prime Minister Keir Starmer has achieved some diplomatic successes, such as gaining the attention of former US President Donald Trump and maintaining a role in discussions on Ukraine, these efforts are built on shaky foundations.
Without a strong economy, Britain cannot sustain its position as a global power. Ibrahim’s recent report from the Henry Jackson Society, Strategic Security, highlights how Britain is ill-equipped to counter threats from authoritarian regimes like Russia and China. Defence spending of 2-2.5 per cent of GDP is insufficient, especially when compared to the US, which spends nearly four per cent.
Ibrahim criticises Starmer’s economic policies, which he claims are exacerbating the problem. Increased taxes, rising public sector wages, and overregulation are stifling innovation and growth. The UK’s reliance on cheap labour over capital investment has further hindered economic progress.
Additionally, high energy costs, driven by the government’s pursuit of net-zero policies, are undermining military procurement and maintenance, making the UK increasingly dependent on US support.
The government’s focus on virtue-signalling, such as prioritising net-zero goals and moral posturing over national security, is also criticised. While other nations are strengthening their military capabilities, Britain continues to pursue policies that have been abandoned elsewhere.
The shutdown of North Sea gas production, for example, has led to job losses and increased reliance on foreign energy, including from Russia.
Meanwhile, billions are being spent on inefficient solar and wind projects, rather than supporting innovative private sector initiatives like the Xlinks project, which aims to deliver solar energy from Morocco to the UK.
Ibrahim also points to the government’s handling of foreign policy and taxation as evidence of its misplaced priorities. The handover of the Chagos Islands and discussions about reparations to Caribbean states are seen as examples of moral posturing at the expense of real governance.
Similarly, aggressive taxation of non-domiciled residents has driven over 10,000 millionaires out of the UK, second only to China in the exodus of wealth creators.
In conclusion, Ibrahim warns that Britain is at a crossroads. The country has the potential to achieve great things, but only if it addresses its economic and military weaknesses. The Henry Jackson Society’s report offers clear recommendations for reform, including changes to regulations, immigration policy, energy strategy, and taxation.
However, Ibrahim fears that Starmer’s government is set on a course of decline, prioritising appearances over substance and failing to confront the challenges facing the nation.
