Over the past two months, the English Channel has been hit by terrible weather. Strong winds and heavy waves have made the crossing from France extremely dangerous, especially for small, overcrowded migrant boats. Given these harsh conditions, you might expect the number of migrants reaching the UK to be lower than last year. But surprisingly, the opposite is true.
As of now, the number of migrants crossing the Channel is almost 20% higher than at the same point in 2024. On Wednesday alone, nearly 200 people made the illegal journey from France. In fact, over 1,300 migrants have arrived in just five days since Sunday. This past Sunday also saw the highest number of migrant arrivals in a single day for March since the crisis began, with 592 people crossing in 11 boats.
These numbers will undoubtedly make uncomfortable reading for Sir Keir Starmer’s government. Eight months ago, Labour promised to “smash the gangs” behind people smuggling by investing millions of pounds into a new Border Security Command and boosting the National Crime Agency’s efforts to dismantle the criminal networks responsible for this multi-billion-pound trade.
While there have been some successes—arrests of suspected smugglers and disruptions to gang operations—the overall impact has been minimal. The number of small boat crossings hasn’t slowed down. In fact, all signs point to another record-breaking year for migrant arrivals, surpassing last year’s figures.
It’s true that expecting instant results from Starmer’s law enforcement-focused approach would have been unrealistic. But after eight months, it’s fair to ask whether anything has changed. Sadly, the answer seems to be no. Every time the weather improves slightly, the people smugglers are back on French beaches, launching just as many—if not more—boats as before.
Having covered the Channel migrant crisis for over two decades, I’ve learned one thing: a law enforcement approach alone won’t be enough to make a meaningful dent in the numbers. To truly address this issue, there needs to be a strong deterrent.
The previous Conservative government’s Rwanda scheme was an attempt to create such a deterrent. The idea was to send thousands of migrants to Rwanda, sending a clear message that those who crossed the Channel illegally would not be allowed to stay in the UK. However, the plan was stalled by legal challenges, so we never got to see whether it would have worked.
Even Sir Keir Starmer’s own head of Border Security, Martin Hewitt, has acknowledged that relying solely on law enforcement won’t solve the crisis. This suggests that it’s time for Starmer to reconsider his approach.
Adopting a deterrent scheme might require an uncomfortable shift in policy, but it could be the only viable option to break the people smuggling business model. Without a clear consequence for crossing the Channel illegally, the flow of migrants is unlikely to stop.
In short, while cracking down on criminal networks is important, it’s not enough. A deterrent—like the Rwanda scheme or something similar—might be the key to reducing the number of small boat crossings and finally addressing this ongoing crisis.
