Pollsters Who Got It Wrong in 2016 and 2020 Say They Finally Found a Way to Pin Down Trump Voters in 2024
Certain pollsters, exasperated by their previous difficulties in forecasting elections featuring Donald Trump, shared with Politico that they appeared to have gotten it right in 2024. Historically, polling had frequently missed the mark when it came to Trump. For instance, in 2016, surveys indicated that Trump was at a significant disadvantage against Hillary Clinton, yet he ultimately won the presidency. Similarly, in 2020, polls predicted a substantial loss to Joe Biden, but the final outcome was much tighter than expected.
A big part of the problem in the past was the so-called “shy” or “hidden” Trump voters. These are people who supported Trump but didn’t feel comfortable admitting it to pollsters. Republican pollster Whit Ayres explained that many Trump supporters simply refused to take part in surveys, especially if they felt the poll came from a media outlet they didn’t trust. He said that when they’d call and say they were from a major news organization, many Trump voters would just hang up.
Democratic pollster Paul Maslin agreed, adding that Trump voters are often distrustful of experts, the media, and pollsters. This made it hard to get accurate responses from them. In both 2016 and 2020, this issue caused polls to underestimate Trump’s level of support. However, in 2024, pollsters made changes to address these challenges, and their predictions came much closer to the actual election results. Polls in 2024 accurately reflected both the national popular vote and outcomes in key battleground states.
To improve accuracy, pollsters adjusted their methods. They focused on reaching groups that had been underrepresented in earlier polls, like non-college-educated voters, who are more likely to support Trump. They also fine-tuned their models to better predict who would actually show up to vote. These adjustments helped them better capture Trump’s strong performance among white voters and Vice President Kamala Harris’s weaker support among Black and Latino men, which contributed to Trump’s victory.
In 2024, Trump won all seven battleground states, even though polls had shown a close race with Harris. Some experts believe Joe Rogan’s last-minute endorsement of Trump influenced undecided voters, pushing them toward him. Republican pollster Brent Buchanan noted that undecided voters typically lean Democratic, but this time they seemed to favor Trump.
Ultimately, Politico reported that the issues with polling in 2016 and 2020 were more about Trump himself than the Republican Party as a whole. Whit Ayres, with decades of experience in GOP polling, predicted that future elections without Trump would likely be easier for pollsters to predict accurately, as many of the challenges were specific to his unique influence and voter base.
