Keir Starmer’s days as Prime Minister are numbered as he faces a major blow that has shocked him

Tomorrow, Parliament starts up again after a dramatic week of local election results, and Keir Starmer is likely to face growing anger from within his own Labour Party.

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is entering Parliament with momentum. They gained another MP, bringing them up to five, and added hundreds of new local councillors.

Conservatives, meanwhile, are returning deeply disappointed. We lost 635 out of the 954 council seats we were defending. This isn’t entirely surprising, as those seats were won back when Boris Johnson was still popular. What’s more shocking, though, is how badly Labour did just 10 months after their big win in the general election.

In 2021, Labour did terribly in these same elections, losing the Hartlepool by-election and putting Starmer’s leadership in question. But even after starting from that low point, Labour only managed to win 98 of the 296 council seats they were defending this time around.

The big question now is: how many Labour MPs will turn against Starmer?

Up until now, Labour MPs have mostly stayed quiet, even while facing criticism from voters. But losing the Runcorn and Helsby by-election—one of Labour’s safest seats—could be the breaking point. Starmer didn’t even show up to help during the campaign, which many see as a major misstep. For a new Prime Minister not to support their own party in a key by-election is almost unheard of, and it made him look weak.

Labour only lost by six votes, and people are blaming Starmer’s lack of leadership for it. His reaction after the defeat didn’t help. He claimed it meant he should go “further and faster.” But voters are wondering what that even means. More taxes? More illegal immigration? That’s not what people want.

The truth is, Labour is losing support in its traditional strongholds not because people want more of the same, but because they’ve lost faith in Starmer altogether. His approval ratings have dropped faster than any Prime Minister since the 1970s.

Starmer keeps talking about “change,” but it’s not clear what kind of change he means. He’s reportedly planning a reshuffle in June—moving Bridget Phillipson from her role and possibly firing Lisa Nandy, Lucy Powell, and even Ed Miliband. But small changes like that won’t fix the deeper problems.

If Starmer wants to keep his job, he needs to start delivering on his promises, like tackling illegal immigration and dealing with criminal gangs. But few people believe Labour can actually follow through on that.

With Farage’s Reform UK gaining support in working-class areas and the Green Party growing in the cities, pressure is building. Many Labour MPs may soon feel they have no choice but to call for new leadership.

It seems like it’s only a matter of time before Starmer is pushed out.