A new poll suggests that Reform UK, a smaller political party, could make huge gains in the next general election, possibly winning as many seats as the two biggest parties, Labour and the Conservatives.
The survey, carried out by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus for PLMR, predicts that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would win 178 seats, Labour would secure 174, and Reform UK could jump from just five seats to a surprising 175. This would mean that the political landscape in the UK is changing in a way that has rarely been seen before.
Political commentator Suzy Stride, speaking on GB News, urged Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to take these results seriously. She warned that many people feel ignored by Labour and that the party needs to reconnect with voters. Stride pointed out that something similar happened in the United States when the Democrats overlooked working-class voters and faced a backlash. She believes Labour could be heading in the same direction if they don’t start listening to the concerns of the people they represent.
She stressed that while this poll does not necessarily predict what will happen in the next four years, it should serve as a wake-up call for Labour. Ignoring the warning signs could lead to major losses in the future. She explained that just because these numbers are based on current opinions doesn’t mean the final election results will look the same. However, it does highlight a growing frustration among voters, which Labour should not ignore.
Kevin Craig, the founder of PLMR, also commented on the results. He pointed out that seeing three parties so close in voter support is highly unusual in British politics. Traditionally, either Labour or the Conservatives dominate elections, while smaller parties struggle to win seats. But this poll shows that things are changing, and many voters are looking for a different option.
Despite these predictions, Craig believes Labour still has time to turn things around. He suggested that if the Labour government successfully improves the economy and makes people feel more positive about their financial situation, they could regain voter confidence and perform much better in the actual election.
The poll surveyed 5,700 British adults and showed that Reform UK is currently leading with 27 percent of voter support. Labour follows with 24 percent, while the Conservatives trail behind at 21 percent. These numbers indicate a significant shift in public opinion and suggest that voters are increasingly frustrated with the two traditional parties.
The survey used a method called MRP, which is considered one of the most reliable ways to predict election results under the UK’s voting system. It works by mapping voter characteristics to specific areas, providing a more detailed and accurate prediction of how many seats each party could win.
If the poll’s predictions come true, Reform UK could increase its number of MPs from just five to 175, giving it a much stronger position in Parliament. On the other hand, Labour could see a dramatic drop, falling from its current 412 seats to just 174. Such a result would shake up British politics, challenging the traditional two-party system and giving Reform UK a real chance to influence government decisions.
Although the next election is still some time away, this poll suggests that many voters are dissatisfied with both Labour and the Conservatives. It remains to be seen whether Labour and the Conservatives will respond to this growing shift in public opinion or if Reform UK will continue to gain momentum as the election approaches.
