Experts issue warning as 1,000lb spacecraft is set to hit Earth this week as they reveal where it could collide

A large, heavy part of an old Soviet spacecraft that has been orbiting Earth for more than 50 years is expected to fall back into our atmosphere very soon. Scientists are closely monitoring it because it weighs around 1,000 pounds, which means it could cause some real damage depending on where it lands. Although the chances of it hitting someone or damaging property are very small, it’s still a possibility, and that’s why experts are warning the public.

The spacecraft is called Kosmos 482. It was launched by the Soviet Union in March 1972 as part of a mission to explore Venus. The goal was to gather information from the surface of Venus, which was a huge ambition at the time.

However, the mission didn’t go as planned. Because of a malfunction in the spacecraft’s engine, it couldn’t fully break free from Earth’s gravity.

This caused the main body of the satellite to fall back into Earth’s atmosphere and burn up in 1981. But not all of it was destroyed. A strong, compact part of the satellite—what’s believed to be the reentry capsule—remained in orbit and has been circling the planet ever since.

Now, after 53 years in space, that capsule is on its way back. Experts estimate that it will reenter Earth’s atmosphere sometime between May 8 and May 11, although it’s difficult to be precise.

As we get closer to those dates, scientists should be able to predict the exact time more accurately. However, figuring out where exactly it will land is a lot harder. The capsule could fall anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude, which covers a large portion of the planet.

This includes parts of North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia. Because the Earth is mostly covered by oceans, scientists believe there’s a strong chance the capsule will end up in the sea, far away from any populated areas.

Despite the low risk, experts are not brushing it off. Dr. Marco Langbroek, who tracks satellites in the Netherlands, says the capsule is about a meter in size and weighs just under 500 kilograms. That makes it heavy and dense enough to survive the fiery fall through our atmosphere. He compares the risk of it causing damage to that of a small meteorite hitting the Earth—it’s unlikely, but it can happen.

Another scientist, Jonathan McDowell, who’s a British-American astronomer and space expert, also believes the object about to fall is indeed the Kosmos 482 capsule. In his analysis, he pointed out that the capsule was designed to survive the intense heat of reentry, thanks to its protective heat shield. Originally, the capsule had a parachute system that would have slowed it down before hitting the ground, but after so many years in space, it’s unlikely that the parachute would still function properly. If the parachute doesn’t deploy, the capsule could come down fast and hard.

McDowell also mentioned that while the capsule doesn’t contain anything dangerous like nuclear material and is essentially just a heavy, dense metal object, you still wouldn’t want it landing anywhere near you. If it does happen to hit a person or damage property, he says the responsibility would fall on the Russian government, as they launched it.

In the meantime, people around the world are watching with curiosity and a bit of concern. It’s not every day that a decades-old piece of space hardware comes falling back to Earth. Events like this are rare, but they remind us that space missions, even the ones launched long ago, can still have consequences many years later. Thankfully, with today’s technology, scientists are better prepared to track and predict such incidents, helping to keep everyone informed and safe.