Could Keir Starmer be forced to resign? Inside the data that should have Labour hitting the panic button

Nigel Farage seems to be gaining more support than Prime Minister Keir Starmer on some important issues like the two-child benefit cap and winter fuel payments. New surveys suggest that voters are beginning to lose trust in Starmer’s leadership, raising questions about whether he can hold onto power.

Even though Starmer won a huge victory in the 2024 General Election, similar to Tony Blair’s win in 1997, his popularity is now falling sharply. Some say the Labour Party is as unpopular now as it was during Gordon Brown’s time or the final days of Jeremy Corbyn.

Labour’s recent losses like Reform UK winning in Runcorn & Helsby by just six votes and taking control of places like Durham and Doncasterhave left many MPs shocked and worried. There are also growing concerns that the party might lose support in Wales and Scotland.

Despite the problems, Starmer has promised his MPs that he’ll keep fighting Farage. But the big question is whether he can actually bounce back. Data from YouGov suggests Labour’s public support is dropping fast—down by more than 12% since the election. This drop is the worst any ruling party has seen since 1983, even worse than the fall the Conservatives had under John Major after the 1992 election.

This kind of drop isn’t totally unusual, as parties in power often face tough times halfway through their term. Still, Labour’s situation is particularly bad. Starmer is trying to win back the public’s trust, but the Conservative Party hasn’t gained much either. Instead, Reform UK has taken advantage of the situation, even though the UK’s voting system makes it hard for smaller parties to win many seats.

YouGov polling shows that voters are turning away from Labour on key issues. On immigration, defense, and law and order, Labour is now tied with or behind the Conservatives. On the economy, the Tories have taken the lead, even though Starmer still has the edge over Kemi Badenoch on housing and health. Reform UK is also gaining traction on many issues, ranking higher than both Labour and the Tories in some surveys.

The economy is especially troubling for Starmer. Last year, 29% of people thought Labour could best manage the economy. That number has now dropped to just 16%. More voters now blame Starmer and his Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the country’s economic troubles than they blame COVID or the war in Ukraine. Even the previous Conservative government is being blamed less. People want results, and they’re starting to lose patience.

Starmer has promised to focus on growing the economy, reducing NHS waiting times, and fixing the country’s border system. If he delivers, public opinion might shift. But it’s uncertain whether that will be enough. His decision to backtrack on cutting winter fuel payments for pensioners has also raised questions about his leadership and consistency.

Labour’s support is also being chipped away by the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. Nearly one in five of Labour’s 2024 voters now support the Lib Dems, and around 9% have switched to Reform. Another 9% are leaning toward the Green Party. Even so, in a one-on-one race against Farage, Starmer still performs better. A YouGov poll found that 44% of voters think Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than Farage, who only received 29% support. He also trails Ed Davey of the Lib Dems and Badenoch in similar matchups.

As for stepping down, Starmer says he’s not going anywhere. Ahead of a major UK-EU summit, he said he plans to lead the country through what he calls “a decade of national renewal.” He dismissed any talk of quitting and said there’s still a lot of work to do. Even though some Labour members are unhappy, there’s no serious challenge to his leadership at the moment.

Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, has also made it clear she isn’t trying to take Starmer’s job. She told Sky News she’s happy with her current role and has no plans to become Labour leader.

So, while Keir Starmer is under pressure, he’s staying in the fight—for now. But with Reform UK rising, the Lib Dems gaining ground, and Labour’s support slipping, the road ahead looks anything but easy.