The relationship between the US and its traditional allies, including the UK, Canada, and Europe, has been strained under Donald Trump’s presidency, particularly due to his unpredictable foreign policy and admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s refusal to fully commit to NATO’s collective defense, his withholding of military aid to Ukraine, and his confrontational approach to allies have led to a growing sense that the US can no longer be relied upon as a steadfast partner. This has prompted Canada and European nations to take matters into their own hands, particularly in the realm of defense.
One key area of contention is the reliance on American military hardware, such as the F-35 fighter jet, which has become a symbol of US military dominance.
However, concerns over Trump’s unpredictability and the potential for the US to disable critical systems via a “kill switch” have led to a push for greater independence. Canada, for example, recently blocked a £10 billion order for 72 F-35s, with Prime Minister Mark Carney stating that other options might better meet the country’s needs.
Similarly, Portugal and Germany have expressed doubts about upgrading their fleets with F-35s, citing concerns over Trump’s policies.
This shift is not just political but also economic. European defense companies are benefiting from the move away from US-made equipment. Shares in French firms like Dassault Aviation and Thales have surged, while UK-based BAE Systems has seen a 40% increase in its stock price. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35, has seen its shares plummet by 25%.
European nations are also investing in their own defense programs. The UK, Italy, and Japan are advancing the Tempest fighter program, while France, Germany, and Spain are collaborating on the Future Combat Air System (FCAS). Additionally, initiatives like the Franco-Italian SAMP/T missile system and Germany’s “Sparta” drone and hypersonic weapons program are gaining traction.
The message is clear: Europe and its allies are no longer willing to depend on the US for their defense needs. Trump’s confrontational approach has backfired, leading to a significant shift in the global defense industry. As European nations invest in their own capabilities, the US defense industry, which currently enjoys £320 billion in annual sales, faces a shrinking market. The era of unquestioned reliance on American military hardware may be coming to an end, as allies seek to ensure their security in an increasingly unpredictable world.
