A new major poll suggests that if a general election were held tomorrow, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and nine other senior members of the government could lose their seats in Parliament. The study, conducted by More in Common, looked at over 16,000 people’s views and found that nearly half of Labour’s top team, including some of the most well-known figures, are at serious risk of losing their positions.
Those predicted to lose their seats include Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. Other high-profile names at risk are Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden, Defence Secretary John Healey, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, and Chief Whip Alan Campbell.
According to the results, nine of these ten could be defeated by candidates from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, while Wes Streeting’s seat might go to an independent candidate. Overall, the poll indicates that Labour would lose 246 seats across the country.
If this result happened in an actual election, it would put Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, each with 165 seats. Reform UK, which only has four MPs right now, would suddenly become the largest party with 180 seats. Even so, no party would have enough MPs to form a government on their own.
Luke Tryl, who runs the UK branch of the More in Common group, said this shows how divided and unpredictable politics in the UK has become. He explained that the mix of voters who helped elect Keir Starmer’s government seems to be breaking apart, with some shifting support to the right and others looking elsewhere.
He also said that Reform UK is now the biggest surprise of this Parliament. A year ago, very few people would have thought they could come out on top in such a poll. While they’re still far from being able to govern alone, their recent rise in popularity is hard to ignore. The question is whether they’ll continue to grow or if their appeal has already peaked.
As for Labour, Tryl explained that despite their strong win in 2024, public frustration is growing. Many voters are disappointed by the slow pace of improvements and the early mistakes made by the new government. In some of Labour’s traditional strongholds — like the Welsh Valleys, Greater Manchester, and South Yorkshire — support is crumbling, and even top ministers are at risk of being voted out.
The next UK general election is expected to happen before the end of August 2029. The poll data was collected between March 14 and April 1.
Here are the ministers and their projected results:
– Angela Rayner (Ashton-under-Lyne) – likely to lose to Reform UK
– Pat McFadden (Wolverhampton South East) – Reform UK gain
– Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley) – Reform UK gain
– John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough) – Reform UK gain
– Bridget Phillipson (Houghton and Sunderland South) – Reform UK gain
– Ed Miliband (Doncaster North) – Reform UK gain
– Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge and Hyde) – Reform UK gain
– Lisa Nandy (Wigan) – Reform UK gain
– Wes Streeting (Ilford North) – Independent candidate gain
– Alan Campbell (Tynemouth) – Reform UK gain
