Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has claimed a decisive victory in the Sutton South East council by-election in St Helens, overtaking both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The party’s candidate, John Pinnington, secured 44.5% of the vote on a turnout of just 17.7%, while Labour trailed at 36.3% and the Lib Dems slumped to 14.6%. The Conservatives finished a distant fourth with 4.6%, down 10.5% from their 2022 result.
The result marks a dramatic collapse for the Liberal Democrats, whose vote share plummeted by 34.7% compared to the last election. Labour saw a marginal 0.7% increase. The by-election was triggered by the death of long-serving Lib Dem councillor Brian Spencer, 77, whose personal popularity failed to transfer to his party’s replacement candidate, David Smith.
Sutton South East, a predominantly working-class ward in Merseyside, has now become Reform UK’s latest stronghold. The win follows a similar upset in December, when Reform defeated Labour in St Helens’ Blackbrook ward. Pinnington, a local businessman and former HGV driver who founded his own haulage firm, becomes Reform’s second councillor in the Labour-controlled borough.
Reform UK’s success signals its ability to draw votes from across the political spectrum—not just Conservatives and Labour, but also the Lib Dems. The party will aim to replicate this performance in the upcoming local elections on May 1, where 1,641 seats across 23 English councils are up for grabs.
Currently, the Tories hold 55% of these seats (954 out of 1,736), Labour 17%, the Lib Dems 13%, and Reform just 1%. However, boundary changes and shifting voter allegiances could reshape the political landscape. The 2021 elections, held during Boris Johnson’s post-vaccine popularity surge, set the baseline for this year’s contests—but Reform’s growing influence suggests a potential shake-up.
With local elections looming, Reform UK will seek to capitalize on its momentum, while the Conservatives brace for further losses. Labour, despite its slight gains in St Helens, faces pressure to solidify its support in traditional heartlands. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems’ dismal performance raises questions about their appeal in working-class areas.
As voters prepare to head to the polls, all eyes will be on whether Reform can transform by-election wins into a broader electoral breakthrough.
