In November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that net migration reached a record high of 906,000 in the year leading up to June 2023. Now, new projections from the ONS show an alarming trend that could affect the UK for years to come.
By June this year, net migration is expected to drop to 630,900, then fall further to 533,800 in 2026. By 2027, it’s predicted to reach 436,700 before leveling out at 340,000 for the next four years.
Adding it all up, net migration between 2022 and 2032 could total nearly five million people. As former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick pointed out, that’s like adding nine cities the size of Manchester to the UK.
This surge in migration puts more pressure on housing, healthcare, schools, and other public services. It also increases the pressure on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to take action.
The public has consistently voted for stricter immigration controls in recent elections. However, the UK’s reliance on cheap foreign labor continues, leading to longer waiting times for doctor appointments and making it harder for young people to buy homes.
This issue is also changing the social makeup of the UK. As Tory MP Neil O’Brien noted, in 2001, about 1 in 12 people in the UK were born abroad. By the end of this decade, that number could rise to more than 1 in 5.
Sir Keir Starmer has acknowledged an “overreliance” on foreign workers as an “easy solution” and promised to reform the immigration system to restore trust in border control. However, he has refused to set a limit on the number of migrants, which could benefit his political opponents, including the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Nigel Farage has claimed that net migration will be the key issue to propel him into power. If Sir Keir wants to keep control of Downing Street, he will need to significantly reduce net migration.
But many doubt this will happen, as the Treasury continues to rely on migrant workers to boost the economy. Until this dependency ends, waiting times for hospital appointments will keep growing, and public frustration with politicians will only increase.
